New York culture markets: Broadway, the Met Gala and the Tonys

Key dates: Broadway, the Met Gala and the Tonys

Date	Event	Why it matters for culture contracts
Thursday, November 19, 2026	Broadway opening: Much Ado About Nothing, Winter Garden Theatre	Opens inside the 2026-27 season
Thursday, November 26, 2026	The 100th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade (NBC, 8:30 a.m. ET)	A fixed-date event; questions about who appears or performs settle on the day
Sunday, December 6, 2026	Broadway opening: Galileo, Shubert Theatre	New musical opening inside the 2026-27 season
Thursday, December 31, 2026	Times Square New Year's Eve ball drop, at midnight	A fixed-date event; performer questions settle that night
Sunday, January 10, 2027	Last day of "Costume Art" at the Met	Closes the 2026 Met Gala cycle
Tuesday, January 19, 2027	Broadway opening: Dolly: A True Original Musical, St. James Theatre	New musical opening inside the 2026-27 season
Thursday, March 25, 2027	Broadway opening: Evita, Winter Garden Theatre	Musical revival opening inside the 2026-27 season
Monday, April 12, 2027	Broadway opening: Purple Rain, Majestic Theatre	New musical opening in the final weeks of the season
Thursday, April 15, 2027	Broadway opening: The Sound of Music, Vivian Beaumont Theatre	Musical revival opening in the final weeks of the season
Late April 2027 (not announced)	Tony Awards eligibility cut-off for the 2026-27 season. Last season's was April 26, 2026	A show must open by the cut-off to compete at the 2027 Tonys
Monday, May 3, 2027 (by tradition, not confirmed)	Met Gala, traditionally the first Monday in May	Attendance and red-carpet questions settle on the night
Sunday, May 9, 2027	"John Galliano: Horizons" opens at the Met, running to January 9, 2028	The exhibition that sets the gala's theme
June 2027 (not announced)	The 2027 Tony Awards. The 2026 ceremony was on June 7	Award-winner contracts settle on the results announced that night

Broadway opening dates and theatres come from Playbill's schedule of upcoming Broadway shows and can move, so confirm them before relying on one. The exhibition dates come from CBS News and W Magazine, the parade date from Parade's guide to the 100th parade, and last season's Tony calendar from the Tony Awards.

What kinds of culture contracts do exchanges write?

Culture contracts follow the same pattern as any other event contract: one question, one deadline, one source for the answer. The common types are:

• Award winners: which show or performer wins a named category, such as Best Musical or Best Play at the Tony Awards.
• Nominations: whether a show or person is nominated in a category, or how many nominations a show receives.
• Box-office thresholds: whether a show's reported weekly gross is above a stated figure for a stated week.
• Attendance and performance questions: whether a named person attends the Met Gala, or performs at an event such as the Thanksgiving parade or New Year's Eve in Times Square.
• Announcement questions: who is named as a co-chair, a host or a cast member by a stated date. Our guide to reading a casting price covers that type in detail.

We do not track which of these each platform lists on a given day. The platforms we cover are Kalshi, Polymarket US, OG and ProphetX. Check the app for current listings, and see our guide to how Kalshi works for the basic mechanics.

How do Tony Awards and Met Gala contracts settle?

Every contract names the source that decides it. The details differ by type:

• Awards settle on the winners announced at the ceremony. The question closes for good the moment the category is read out.
• Box-office questions need a published number. The Broadway League publishes weekly grosses and attendance for each show, with every week ending on a Sunday, so a contract of this type should say which week and which figure it uses.
• Attendance questions depend on a definition. Walking the red carpet, being inside the museum and being photographed at an after-party are three different things, and the rules decide which one counts.
• Announcement questions depend on who has to make the announcement and by when. A press report is not always the same as an official statement.

Read the rules for the closing time too. A contract can stop trading before the event, and it can take time after the event for the result to be confirmed and paid out.

How do you read the price of a culture contract?

A contract's price sits between $0 and $1. If the stated outcome happens, each contract pays $1; if it does not, it pays $0.

Example (made-up numbers, not a real market): a contract asking "Will Show A win Best Musical?" is priced at $0.30. A buyer pays $0.30 per contract and receives $1 if Show A wins and nothing if it does not. The $0.30 price means traders, taken together, see roughly a 30-in-100 chance.

The price is an estimate, not a result. Awards are decided by voters and guest lists by organizers, and neither group reports to the market. Platforms also charge fees, and our guide to taxes on Kalshi and Polymarket US trades in New York covers record keeping.

Why does thin trading matter in culture markets?

Culture contracts usually draw fewer traders and less money than large sports or economics contracts. That changes how they behave:

• Wider gaps. The distance between the best buying price and the best selling price can be large, so you can lose money just by getting in and out.
• Jumpy prices. One modest order can move the price, so a sudden move may reflect one trader and not new information.
• Hard exits. There may be nobody on the other side when you want to sell, which can leave you holding the contract to settlement.
• Uneven information. Guest lists, casting and award voting are known to insiders before the public, so the person on the other side of a trade may know more than you do.

The same question can also show different prices on different platforms; our piece on why prices differ between platforms explains why.

Does a Broadway opening night move a Tony contract?

An opening night is the first time a show is judged in public, so reviews and word of mouth are new information for anyone trading an award contract. How far a price should move is a different matter, and no review decides a Tony. Nominations and winners are chosen by the Tony nominators and voters months later.

The calendar matters more than any single night. A show has to open by the season's eligibility cut-off to compete, which is why so many openings crowd into March and April. The six openings in the table above all fall inside the 2026-27 season, and two of them are in mid-April.

Seeing a show early, in previews or off-Broadway, can help you form a view, but it is not a reliable edge. Plenty of other people have seen it too, and in a thin market being right about a show does not mean you can trade at the price you want.

Are culture prediction markets available in New York?

Our New York status for the platforms we cover is: Available — dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). The details are in our New York status guide and our explainer on the CFTC's lawsuit against New York. Culture listings differ by platform and by week, so check the status and the specific contract before you trade.

Kalshi's, Polymarket US's and OG's minimum age is 18; ProphetX's is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); we recommend 21+.

Frequently asked questions

What are New York culture markets?

They are yes-or-no event contracts on cultural events tied to the city, such as who wins a Tony Award, whether a Broadway show's weekly gross passes a stated figure, or whether a named person attends the Met Gala. Each contract has its own question, deadline and settlement source.

Who won Best Musical and Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?

Schmigadoon! won Best Musical and Liberation, by Bess Wohl, won Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards, held on June 7, 2026, at Radio City Music Hall. Ragtime won Best Revival of a Musical and Death of a Salesman won Best Revival of a Play.

When is the 2027 Met Gala?

The Met Gala is traditionally held on the first Monday in May, which in 2027 is May 3. In the coverage we checked on October 13, 2026, the Met had not confirmed the gala date or the co-chairs. The exhibition it opens, "John Galliano: Horizons", runs from May 9, 2027, to January 9, 2028.

When are the 2027 Tony Awards?

No date, venue or eligibility cut-off for the 2027 ceremony appeared on the Tony Awards news page when we checked on October 13, 2026. For reference, the 2026 ceremony was on June 7 and that season's eligibility cut-off was April 26.

How does a Met Gala attendance contract settle?

It settles under the definition written in its rules. Walking the red carpet, being inside the museum and appearing at an after-party are different things, so read which one counts and which source is used to confirm it before you trade.

Why are culture contracts harder to trade than sports contracts?

They usually draw fewer traders. That means wider gaps between buying and selling prices, prices that can jump on one order, and exits that may not be available when you want them. Insiders can also know guest lists, casting and voting results before the public does.

Are culture prediction markets available in New York?

Our New York status for the platforms we cover is: Available — dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). See our New York status guide for details, and check the app for current listings.