New York governor 2026: Hochul vs Blakeman with two weeks to go
Kathy Hochul faces Bruce Blakeman on 3 November. The latest Marist poll, early-voting dates from 24 October, and how governor markets settle.
New York · Prediction Markets
Compare Kalshi, Polymarket US, OG, ProphetX and other platforms, all reviewed by a 15-year iGaming and sportsbook professional, written for the city that already prices the news in real time.
Trade on ProphetX (opens in a new tab) Trade on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Compare all 8
New York · Updated October 15, 2026
Trade $50, Earn $75!
49 states + D.C.
Trade on ProphetX (opens in a new tab)New users only. T&Cs apply. ProphetX's minimum age is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); we recommend 21+. Not available in Nevada. Trading involves risk.
Trade $25 and Get $25!
47 states + D.C.
Trade on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!
49 states + D.C.
Trade on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Trade $25 Get $50 in Rewards! (New users only)
42 states + D.C.
Trade on OG (opens in a new tab)Paid partnership with OG. Terms and conditions apply. Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Availability subject to jurisdictional limitations. For more information, visit: OG.com.
NY Prediction Markets earns commissions when readers sign up to partner platforms through our links. Editorial coverage is independent of those commissions.
In plain English
Last updated: October 15, 2026
NY Prediction Markets is an independent editorial guide to prediction markets for New Yorkers. Four partner platforms accept New York residents: Kalshi, Polymarket US, OG and ProphetX. OG is Crypto.com's prediction-market app (trade $25, get $50 in rewards with code NYPREDICTS), and Novig (opens in a new tab)'s peer-to-peer sports app is available in New York too (deposit $10, get $50 in trade credits). Three platforms (Sleeper, Chalkboard and Rebet) are travel-only under NY's DFS and sweepstakes rules. We cover the markets the city is already trading on the 4/5/6, at the bar, and in the group chat: Knicks playoffs, the mayoral race, Fed-cut odds, Met Gala outcomes. Founded and edited by Catie Di Stefano, who has spent 15 years in the regulated gambling industry.
Available for now, and disputed. As of October 13, 2026, federally regulated event-contract exchanges like Kalshi accept New York residents, and Polymarket US accepts New York residents too (welcome offer valid in 49 states plus D.C.). New York sued Kalshi on July 31, 2026 and Polymarket US on September 24, 2026, alleging unlicensed gambling; both cases are pending, so access could change. OG (Crypto.com's prediction-market app) gives $50 in rewards for new traders who trade $25 with code NYPREDICTS, available in New York (welcome offer covers 42 states plus D.C.). Novig's peer-to-peer sports app is available in New York too. DFS pick'em apps (Sleeper, Chalkboard) and sweepstakes-style sports apps (Rebet) are not available from inside NY: they're travel-only for New Yorkers. For the full picture, read our NY legality guide or browse the platforms comparison. For a national view beyond New York, our sibling site has every legal venue ranked (opens in a new tab).
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contracts exchange where you trade Yes/No contracts on real-world outcomes: elections, Fed decisions, weather, sports, culture. Each contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price between is the market's probability. Kalshi accepts New York residents (status: Available, dispute pending, as of October 13, 2026; the state is suing it) and runs on iPhone, Android, and desktop. New traders get a $25 bonus with code NYPREDICTS. For the deep dive, see our Kalshi explainer and the full Kalshi review.
Both accept New Yorkers today, and New York is suing both; the cases are pending. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, runs on iPhone, Android and desktop, and dominates US politics, macro, and Fed-decision markets. Polymarket has deeper global and cultural markets and a US app that accepts New Yorkers. For NY-specific markets like the mayoral race or Knicks contracts, Kalshi tends to have tighter spreads; Polymarket tends to have more long-tail markets. Full breakdown in our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison.
Yes. Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the same federal regulator that oversees CME futures. Risk of loss is still real, and although the venue is federally regulated, New York sued Kalshi on July 31, 2026, alleging it needs a state license; that case is pending. See our independent NYC-trader review of Kalshi.
At a glance
| Platform | Available in NY? | Best for | New-trader bonus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Available, dispute pending; offer valid in 47 states + D.C. (not MI, NV, WA) | Politics, macro, Fed odds | Trade $25, get $25, code NYPREDICTS |
| Polymarket | Available, dispute pending; offer valid in 49 states plus D.C. | Global, cultural, long-tail | $25 after $10 deposit, code NYPREDICTS |
| OG | Available, dispute pending; offer covers 42 states + D.C., including New York | Culture, sports & trending markets | Trade $25, get $50, code NYPREDICTS |
| ProphetX | Available, dispute pending; offer valid in 49 states + D.C. (not NV) | Sports, peer-to-peer exchange | Trade $50, get $75, code NYPREDICTS |
| Novig | Available, dispute pending; 47 states + D.C., including New York | Peer-to-peer sports | Deposit $10, get $50, code NYPREDICTS |
| Not available in New York (only when you travel) | |||
| Rebet | Travel-only (38 states + D.C.) | Social sweepstakes sports | 100% match (travel-only) |
| Sleeper | Travel-only | DFS pick'em | Varies by state |
| Chalkboard | Travel-only | Player props, pick'em | Varies by state |
Offers checked October 14, 2026. "Travel-only" means New Yorkers can sign up and play only when physically located in an eligible US state.
One code, NYPREDICTS, for every welcome offer. Step-by-step guides:
On the board
Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, refreshed every day. Each price is the market's chance in percent.
Prices as of Oct 25, 2026
Kathy Hochul
Kalshi 95.1% (opens in a new tab) Polymarket 95.5% (opens in a new tab)
Hike 25bps
Kalshi 72% (opens in a new tab) Polymarket 74% (opens in a new tab)
above 13,500,000
Kalshi 88% (opens in a new tab) Not on Polymarket
The Odyssey
Kalshi 47% (opens in a new tab) Polymarket 44.5% (opens in a new tab)
Ezra Frech
Kalshi 57% (opens in a new tab) Polymarket 58% (opens in a new tab)
Jack Lowden
Kalshi 64% (opens in a new tab) Polymarket 37.1% (opens in a new tab)
Polymarket prices shown are from its global exchange; the US app may list different markets.
Notes from Catie
Politics · from Park Slope
"The mayoral field hasn't settled and Kalshi's pricing is moving faster than the polling, faster than the Brooklyn Paper, faster than the F train."
Sports · from Midtown
"Knicks playoff odds keep drifting up on Garden nights. Watch the post-game minutes on the 1 train home, not just the box score."
The latest
Editorial only. No recommendations to trade, just where the conversation already is.
Kathy Hochul faces Bruce Blakeman on 3 November. The latest Marist poll, early-voting dates from 24 October, and how governor markets settle.
Enter NYPREDICTS when you sign up for ProphetX, trade $50 in sports contracts and get $75. How to claim it from New York, who qualifies and the fine print.
Con Ed bills spike when the city does. How a Central Park temperature contract on Kalshi can offset part of a hot summer, with the mechanics, not the hype.
Bank, debit card and other ways to cash out, how long each takes, and what can delay it. The clean version of how Kalshi withdrawals actually work.
Use code NYPREDICTS in the Polymarket app and deposit $10 to unlock a $25 trading bonus. Full claim flow and eligibility.
What you can trade on the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27, the opening stretch from 21 October at Barclays Center, and which apps New Yorkers can use.
The Knicks open their title defense on Tuesday, October 20, against the 76ers at Madison Square Garden. Key dates, the kinds of Knicks contracts and where New Yorkers can trade.
A threshold contract and a range contract on the same coin can move in opposite directions on the same day. Here is how each format works, what settles it and what happens exactly on the boundary.
A next-James-Bond market prices each actor under one written rule. Here is what that contract asks, how to read a casting price, and how to tell a rumour from an announcement.
The same event can carry different prices on two prediction markets. Here is why that happens, using a New York temperature contract, and how to compare the rules before you read a gap as a signal.
How to read a Fed rate-decision contract before the next FOMC meeting: the two contract formats, how the September hike would settle each one, and the data due before the vote.
A New York guide to marathon winner contracts: how they settle, what happens when a runner withdraws, the five-borough course and the storylines behind each field.
How to read game, division, playoff and Stanley Cup contracts on the Rangers and Islanders, what each team changed over the summer, and where New Yorkers can trade.
The categories
Most active
Knicks at the Garden, Yankees in October, Mets nights at Citi.
Heating up
Gracie Mansion, Albany, the White House.
Brooklyn's pick
Tonys, Met Gala, the timeline from Bed-Stuy to LES.
FiDi favored
Fed days, CPI prints, recession chatter on Hudson Street.
The five
Each borough trades a different version of the same city.
Borough
Bloomberg in the morning, Garden by 7:30.
FiDi· Tribeca· SoHo· West Village
Borough
Substack politics, culture on the L, Nets-curious.
Williamsburg· Bed-Stuy· Park Slope· Bushwick
Borough
Mets faithful, Premier League mornings, the world on the 7.
Astoria· Long Island City· Flushing· Jackson Heights
Borough
Yankees, civic pride, the city's loudest October.
South Bronx· Mott Haven· Concourse· Fordham
Borough
Ferry-commuter sports, finance, and Sunday politics.
St. George· Stapleton· New Dorp· Tottenville
The platforms
A short list of where to start, sorted by what you actually care about.
Best for sports
Best for politics & the Fed
Deepest markets
Culture & trending markets
Tonight in New York
Editorial only. No recommendations to trade — just where the conversation already is.
Tonight at the Garden
Kalshi's Knicks series and player-milestone contracts are one way New Yorkers can put a number on a Garden night. Polymarket's app carries the same beat.
This week, City Hall
The field's still finding its shape. Kalshi's live numbers are quietly becoming dinner-party material from the UWS to Park Slope.
Broadway
OG lists fast-moving cultural markets that move with each round of nominations — $50 in rewards when you trade $25 for new traders with code NYPREDICTS. Kalshi covers the bigger awards-season questions from inside NY.
The basics
A two-minute primer for the New Yorker who's heard the term six times this week.
Read the full guide01
A market on an outcome
Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if it doesn't.
02
The price is the probability
Example: a contract at 62¢ means the market puts the chance at about 62%.
03
You can sell anytime
Trade the price like a stock, not just the final result.
The masthead
Common questions
A prediction market is a venue where you trade contracts tied to the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a Fed decision, a Knicks playoff run, the next snowstorm to cancel alternate-side parking. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price between those two numbers reflects the market's probability that it will.
Three reader offers, all with code NYPREDICTS: OG gives new traders $50 in rewards when you trade $25 (Crypto.com's prediction-market app — sports, culture, macro, trending; available in 42 states plus D.C., including New York). Polymarket gives a $25 trading bonus after a $10 deposit (US app, 49 states plus D.C., New York included). ProphetX gives $75 when you trade $50 (sports-first, CFTC-licensed, live in New York). Kalshi gives $25 back when you trade $25 (CFTC-regulated; iPhone, Android and desktop; 48 US jurisdictions including New York). Use code NYPREDICTS at signup on any of the three.
Yes, for now. As of September 29, 2026, federally regulated event-contract exchanges like Kalshi accept New York residents — though New York is suing Kalshi and Polymarket in a fight over whether state gambling law applies (see our legality guide), Polymarket's US app is available in 49 states plus D.C., New York included, and ProphetX — CFTC-licensed and sports-first — is live in 49 states plus D.C., New York included. OG (Crypto.com's prediction-market app) gives $50 in rewards for new traders who trade $25 with code NYPREDICTS, available in New York (live in 42 states plus D.C.). Novig, a peer-to-peer sports app, is also available in New York (deposit $10, get $50 in trade credits with code NYPREDICTS). DFS pick'em apps (Sleeper, Chalkboard) and sweepstakes-style sports apps (Rebet) are not legal to play from inside NY: they're travel-only for New Yorkers. For the full picture, read our NY legality guide or browse the platforms comparison. For a national view beyond New York, our sibling site has every legal venue ranked.
NY Prediction Markets is an independent editorial guide to prediction markets for New Yorkers. Five platforms are recommendable from inside NY: Polymarket, ProphetX (sports-first), Kalshi, OG (Crypto.com's prediction-market app; trade $25, get $50 in rewards with code NYPREDICTS) and Novig, a peer-to-peer sports app (deposit $10, get $50 in trade credits with code NYPREDICTS). Three other apps (Sleeper, Chalkboard and Rebet) are travel-only under NY's DFS and sweepstakes rules. We cover the markets the city is already trading on the 4/5/6, at the bar, and in the group chat: Knicks playoffs, the mayoral race, Fed-cut odds, Met Gala outcomes. Founded and edited by Catie Di Stefano, a 14+ year iGaming marketing veteran.
NY treats DFS-style pick'em products (Sleeper Picks, Chalkboard) and sweepstakes-style social sports apps (Rebet) as restricted under the NY State Gaming Commission framework and NY Penal Law Art. 225. Sleeper actually pulled Picks from NY when state fantasy-sports rules took effect. The NY alternatives are CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX), OG, the Novig peer-to-peer sports app, and licensed mobile sportsbooks. New Yorkers can still sign up and play the travel-only platforms when physically located in an eligible state.
For Knicks, Yankees, and Mets coverage from inside NY: ProphetX is the sports-first, CFTC-licensed specialist (trade $50, get $75 with code NYPREDICTS), Kalshi runs CFTC-regulated event-style sports contracts where eligible, and Polymarket's app carries the same beat. Novig's peer-to-peer sports app also works from NY (deposit $10, get $50 in trade credits with code NYPREDICTS). Pick'em apps like Sleeper and Chalkboard aren't legal from NY — they're travel-only.
A contract trading at 62¢ means the market thinks there's roughly a 62% chance of that outcome. If the event happens, the contract settles at $1; if not, $0. You can also sell before settlement, like a stock — so the moving price tells the story in real time, the same way a Knicks line moves between innings on the bar TV.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contracts exchange where you trade Yes/No contracts on real-world outcomes: elections, Fed decisions, weather, sports, culture. Each contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price between is the market's probability. Kalshi is available in 48 US jurisdictions including New York, where the state is suing it, and runs on iPhone, Android, and desktop.
Both accept New Yorkers today, and New York is suing both; the cases are pending. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, available on iPhone, Android and desktop, and dominates US politics, macro, and Fed-decision markets. Polymarket has deeper global and cultural markets and a US app live in 49 states plus D.C., New York included. For NY-specific markets like the mayoral race or Knicks contracts, Kalshi tends to have tighter spreads; Polymarket tends to have more obscure long-tail markets. New traders get $25 on Kalshi and a $25 bonus on Polymarket with code NYPREDICTS.
Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the same federal regulator that oversees CME futures. It is legally distinct from a sportsbook or casino. Risk of loss is still real, and although the venue is federally regulated, New York sued Kalshi on July 31, 2026, alleging it needs a state license; that case is pending.
Yes. NY Prediction Markets is editorially independent and founded by Catie Di Stefano, who has spent 15 years in the regulated gambling industry and has spoken on New York's gaming market at Next.io New York and SBC Summit North America. We earn affiliate commissions from some partner platforms; coverage is independent of those commissions, and we keep platforms whose US legal status is unsettled at arm's length.
21+
Responsible Use · New YorkPrediction markets and related products involve real risk of loss. Eligibility and product availability vary by state. Never trade money you can't afford to lose. If gambling is causing harm in New York, call 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY to 467369. More at nyproblemgambling.org (opens in a new tab).
Affiliate Transparency
NY Prediction Markets earns commissions when readers sign up to partner platforms through our links. Editorial coverage is independent of those commissions, and we maintain a separate, conservative posture on platforms whose US status is unsettled. Read the full disclosure.
New users only. T&Cs apply. ProphetX's minimum age is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); we recommend 21+. Not available in Nevada. Trading involves risk.