Bitcoin & XRP Contracts: How to Read the Swings

What are the main crypto contract formats?

Format	The question	How many outcomes can be Yes	When it is decided
Threshold (above or below)	Is the price at or above a stated level at a stated time?	Several: every level under the final price	At one moment
Range	Is the price inside a stated band at a stated time?	Exactly one band	At one moment
Touch (how high, how low)	Does the price reach a stated level at any point in the window?	Several: every level that was reached	Any time in the window, so it can settle early
Up or down	Is the price at the end of a short window at least what it was at the start?	One contract, Yes or No	At the end of the window

The titles look alike, and that is the trap. "Bitcoin price on Friday" can be a threshold ladder or a set of ranges, and the same move in the coin does different things to each.

Why can a range contract rise while a threshold contract falls?

Picture a coin trading near $50, and two contracts that both settle at 5 p.m.:

• Threshold: "Will the coin be at or above $52?"
• Range: "Will the coin be between $48 and $49.99?"

During the afternoon the coin slips to $49. The threshold contract falls, because $52 is now further away. The range contract rises, because the coin has moved into its band. Both contracts reacted to the same fall in the coin, in opposite directions.

Now the coin keeps falling to $47. The threshold contract falls again. So does the range contract, because the coin has dropped out through the bottom of the band.

The lesson is that a range contract gains when the coin moves toward its band from either side and loses when the coin moves away, up or down. A rising price on an XRP range contract does not mean XRP rose. It means traders think XRP is more likely to finish inside that band.

Which price settles a Bitcoin or XRP contract?

Not the number on your exchange app. On both Kalshi and Polymarket US, a threshold or range contract settles on an index published by CF Benchmarks, averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time. Kalshi's rule says so directly: checking a source like Google or Coinbase "may help guide your decision," but the settlement price comes from the index.

Touch contracts use a stricter test so that a one-second spike does not count. Both platforms describe a trimmed average: the highest 20% and lowest 20% of the index values in the measuring period are removed, and the rest are averaged. A level counts as reached only if that trimmed figure gets there.

The clock matters as much as the index. Times in these rules are Eastern Time, and a contract that settles at 5 p.m. ignores what the coin does at 5:01.

What happens exactly on the boundary?

Boundary rules decide more contracts than people expect, especially on round numbers.

• Thresholds: on Polymarket US, a settlement value exactly equal to the level settles Yes. Kalshi's Bitcoin contracts reach the same result with different words: an outcome labeled "or above" a round level is written as "above" a figure one cent lower.
• Ranges: on Polymarket US the bands include both ends and sit one cent apart, so exactly one band settles Yes. Kalshi's Bitcoin bands are written the same way, ending in .99.
• Up or down: on both platforms a window that ends exactly where it started settles to the "up" side.
• Missing data: the platforms differ. Kalshi's XRP rule says that if index data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, the affected contracts resolve No. Polymarket US's documentation says settlement is deferred until the data is complete.
• Early settlement: on Polymarket US only touch contracts can settle early, at the moment the level is reached. Threshold and range contracts always wait for their stated time.

Why do short-window contracts swing so hard?

Every one of these contracts ends at $1 or $0. The closer the deadline, the less time the coin has to change the answer, so the price is pulled toward one end. When the coin sits right next to the level with minutes left, a tiny move in the coin can flip the contract from mostly Yes to mostly No and back.

That is the "swing" in a 15-minute or hourly contract: not a big move in Bitcoin or XRP, but a small move at the worst possible distance from a line. Polymarket US says its crypto contracts list around the clock, including weekends, so the swings do not wait for market hours. A price is still only a market-implied probability; our prediction markets vs. sports betting guide explains the mechanics.

What should you check before trading a crypto price contract?

1. The format. Threshold, range, touch, or up or down? Do not rely on the title.
2. The moment or the window. One settlement time, or any time before a deadline?
3. The index. Which published index decides it, and over how many seconds?
4. The boundary. What happens if the value lands exactly on the level?
5. The platform. If a chart says "Polymarket," is it Polymarket US or the international platform?

You never hold the coin in any of these contracts; they are cash-settled event contracts. For how gains and losses are reported, see our Kalshi and Polymarket tax guide for New Yorkers, which is general information and not tax advice.

Where can New Yorkers trade Bitcoin and XRP contracts?

Check Kalshi first, then Polymarket US, then OG; the coins and formats on offer differ on each, as the box at the top shows. Their New York status is the same: Available — dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). Our New York legality guide, Kalshi in New York page and Polymarket in New York page follow the dispute.

Kalshi's, Polymarket US's and OG's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between a threshold contract and a range contract?

A threshold contract asks whether the price is at or above a level at a stated time, so several levels can resolve Yes together. A range contract asks whether the price is inside one band, so only one band resolves Yes.

Does a rising XRP range contract mean XRP went up?

No. A range contract gains when the coin moves toward its band from either direction. The price of the contract can rise while XRP itself is falling.

Which price settles a Bitcoin contract?

On the platforms we checked, a published CF Benchmarks index averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time, not the price on any single exchange or app. Always read the rule on the contract you are trading.

What happens if Bitcoin finishes exactly on the level?

It depends on the rule. On the threshold contracts we read, a value exactly on the level counts as Yes. Check the wording, because "above" and "at or above" are different tests.

Do I own Bitcoin or XRP when I trade one of these contracts?

No. These are event contracts that settle in cash at $1 or $0 depending on the outcome. You never hold the coin.

Can New Yorkers trade Bitcoin and XRP price contracts?

The platforms we cover are open to New Yorkers while a legal dispute is pending, and which coins each one lists is in the status box at the top. The current status line is in the last section above, and our Kalshi in New York page tracks any change.