Mamdani approval rating: polls and prediction markets

Key dates: City Hall and the ballot

Date	What happens	Why it matters
October 24, 2026	Last day to register to vote for the general election; early voting begins	Sets who can vote on the five City Charter proposals
October 24 to November 1, 2026	Early voting in New York City	Nine days of in-person voting before Election Day
November 3, 2026	General election; polls are open 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.	Five City Charter amendments on permits, contracting, street projects, building permitting and the Rainy Day Fund are on the city ballot, alongside the race for governor
November 2026	Mayor's November Financial Plan update	The first budget update since the Fiscal Year 2027 budget was agreed
January 1, 2027	One year since Mamdani was sworn in	A common trigger for new approval polls
January 2027	Mayor presents the preliminary budget for the next fiscal year	Opens the budget season that must end before July 1

Election dates come from the NYC Board of Elections and its registration deadlines page; the ballot questions are from NYC Votes. Budget timing is from the City Council budget process page and the City Comptroller's report on the adopted budget. The city has not published an exact day for the November update or the January budget that we could confirm.

What is Mamdani's approval rating?

There is no single official number. Each pollster asks its own question of its own group of people, so the honest answer is a short list of named polls with their dates. The current list is in the box at the top of this page, and we update it when a new public poll comes out.

The most direct recent measure of how he is doing the job is the Suffolk University CityView poll, which interviewed 500 New York City registered voters by live telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The Siena and Quinnipiac figures are favorability ratings, and their New York City numbers come from the city portion of statewide likely-voter polls. A subgroup is smaller than the full sample, so its margin of error is wider than the statewide one.

Why do polls of the same mayor show different numbers?

Three things change the result before a single voter changes their mind.

• The question. "Do you approve of the job he is doing?" is not the same as "Do you have a favorable opinion of him?" or "Is his performance excellent, good, fair or poor?" Some polls offer a neutral or unsure option, which lowers both the positive and the negative number.
• The people asked. All adults, registered voters and likely voters are three different groups. Likely voters are the smallest and the most politically engaged.
• The place. A citywide poll and the city slice of a statewide poll are built differently, and a statewide number includes upstate and the suburbs, where views of a New York City mayor can differ sharply from views inside the five boroughs.

The fair comparison is the same pollster asking the same question over time. Comparing one pollster's approval number with another's favorability number tells you little.

How has Mamdani's approval changed since he took office?

Mamdani was sworn in as mayor on January 1, 2026. The first detailed readings came around his 100th day in office, and the next cluster came in September. The table lists the public polls we have opened and checked.

Pollster	Field dates	Who was asked	What it measured	Result
Marist	March 26-31, 2026	1,454 New York City adults	Job approval	48% approve, 30% disapprove, 23% unsure
Emerson College	April 5-6, 2026	850 New York City registered voters	Job approval	43% approve, 27% disapprove, 30% neutral
Suffolk University	September 1-3, 2026	500 New York City registered voters	Job performance grade	57% good or excellent, 34% fair or poor
Siena	September 11-17, 2026	1,144 New York State likely voters (city portion)	Favorability	60% favorable, 31% unfavorable in New York City
Quinnipiac	September 17-20, 2026	1,026 New York State likely voters (city portion)	Favorability	60% favorable, 29% unfavorable in New York City

The spring and September rows use different questions, so the gap between them is not a clean measure of change. What the spring polls do show is where he was stronger and weaker. Emerson found voters approved of his handling of childcare (54% to 21%) and housing affordability (49% to 25%) and were split on the city budget (40% to 37%). The two polls also disagreed on the mood of the city: Marist found 56% of adults saying the city was moving in the right direction, while Emerson found 59% of registered voters saying it was on the wrong track.

What has happened at City Hall that could move the numbers?

• The rent freeze. The Rent Guidelines Board adopted its guidelines on June 25, 2026 for leases starting between October 1, 2026 and September 30, 2027. The mayor's statement called it a freeze on one-year leases and the first freeze on two-year leases in the city's history. amNewYork reported the vote as 7-1 and the reach as roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments. A rent freeze was one of his central campaign promises.
• The first budget. The handshake agreement on a $125.8 billion Fiscal Year 2027 budget was announced on the June 30 deadline. The City Comptroller's review restated the city's own figures and projected budget gaps in the years ahead, which makes the November update and the January preliminary budget the next tests.
• The police commissioner. Mamdani kept Jessica Tisch as police commissioner. In the Suffolk poll, 56% supported that decision.
• The Charter proposals. The five questions on the November ballot were approved by the city's Commission on Government Efficiency on July 23, 2026. How they fare will be read as a signal about the administration's agenda, although a ballot question is not a vote on the mayor.

Which Mamdani prediction markets can appear?

Political contracts come and go, and we do not state which platform lists which question on a given day. Contracts about a sitting mayor usually fall into a few families:

• Time in office: whether the mayor is still in office on a stated date.
• The next election: who wins the next mayoral election. New York City mayors serve four-year terms, so the next regular election is in 2029.
• Policy outcomes: whether a board or the Council takes a specific action by a deadline, such as a rent decision or a budget passed on time.
• Appointments: whether a named official still holds a post on a stated date.
• Poll thresholds: whether a named poll or polling average is above a stated number on a stated date.

The platforms we cover are Kalshi, Polymarket US, OG and ProphetX. Check the app for current listings, and read the contract rules: the exact question, the closing time and the source used to settle it. Our guide to how Kalshi works and our Kalshi vs. Polymarket US comparison explain the mechanics.

How do you read a price on a political contract?

A contract pays $1 if the stated outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so its price sits between those two numbers and moves as people trade.

Example: this is a made-up contract, not a real listing. Suppose the question is "Will the City Council adopt the budget by June 30?" and a contract on that outcome last traded at $0.70. That price reflects traders collectively treating the outcome as more likely than not. A buyer at $0.70 would receive $1 if the budget is adopted in time and lose the $0.70 if it is not.

A price is an estimate that changes, not a forecast you can rely on. A small move on a quiet day in a thinly traded contract can be noise. Trading involves risk of loss, and proceeds can have tax consequences; our tax overview for New Yorkers covers the basics.

Why can polls and prediction markets disagree?

They answer different questions. A poll measures what a sample of people say they think today. A contract price reflects what traders expect to happen by a deadline that can be months or years away.

• Time horizon. A strong rating today can sit next to a cautious price on an election several years out, because budgets, other elections and the eventual field of candidates are still unknown.
• Who counts. Polls of adults or registered voters include people who will not vote. An election contract settles on those who do, and turnout in city primaries is usually much lower than in a general election.
• The exact wording. A contract settles on its written rule. Two contracts that sound alike can use different dates, sources or thresholds.

Neither number is a prediction on its own. Read them together and pay more attention to direction over time than to any single reading.

What happened to the NYC mayor race markets?

The 2025 race is over. Mamdani won the November 4, 2025 general election, running as the Democratic nominee against Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. NBC News projected him the winner with just over half of the vote. Contracts on that race have settled, and there is no mayoral election on the ballot again until 2029.

Our earlier coverage of how that race traded and of his first 100 days now lives on this page. The lesson we keep from it is simple: a contract answers only the question it asks, and once the event happens it is finished. What remains open are questions about his term.

Are Mamdani prediction markets available in New York?

Our New York status for the platforms we cover is: Available — dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). The details, and the background on the court fight between the state and federal regulators, are in our New York status guide and our explainer on the CFTC's lawsuit against New York. Political listings differ by platform and by week, so check the status and the specific contract before you trade.

Kalshi's and Polymarket US's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.

Frequently asked questions

What is Mamdani's approval rating?

There is no single official figure. In Suffolk University's poll of New York City registered voters (September 1-3, 2026), 57% rated his job performance good or excellent and 34% fair or poor. Siena (September 11-17) and Quinnipiac (September 17-20) each had him at 60% favorable among their New York City likely voters.

What is the difference between approval and favorability?

Job approval asks whether people approve of how the mayor is doing the job. Favorability asks whether they have a favorable opinion of him as a person or public figure. The two usually move together but are not the same number, so compare like with like.

When did Mamdani become mayor, and when is the next mayoral election?

Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as mayor of New York City on January 1, 2026, after winning the November 4, 2025 general election. Mayors serve four-year terms, so the next regular mayoral election is in 2029.

What is on the New York City ballot on November 3, 2026?

Alongside the race for governor, city voters will decide five proposed City Charter amendments covering public-space permits, city contracting, street safety projects and city property, building permitting, and the Rainy Day Fund. Early voting runs October 24 to November 1, 2026. The mayor is not on the ballot.

Do prediction market prices predict Mamdani's reelection?

No price can do that. A contract price is traders' current estimate of one written question and it changes with news. An election several years away depends on events that have not happened, so treat any price as a moving estimate and never as a forecast to rely on.

What should I read before trading a contract about the mayor?

Read the exact question, the closing date and time, the source that will be used to settle it, and what happens if the event is delayed or the wording becomes ambiguous. Then check the app for current listings, because political contracts open and close often.

Can New Yorkers trade Mamdani prediction markets?

Our New York status for the platforms we cover is: Available — dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). Whether a contract about the mayor is listed changes by platform and date, so check the app. Our New York status guide is updated when the situation changes.