Mamdani Approval Rating: NYC Polls & What Prediction Markets Are Pricing

Update — August 17, 2026. Reviewed as of this date. The political contracts discussed below remain listed on [Kalshi](=AFF:kalshi) and [Polymarket](=AFF:polymarket); the widget above carries the live price. Polling figures cited in this piece are quoted verbatim from the pollster's own release and are not re-estimated by us.

Two different numbers tell you how Mayor Mamdani is doing. The poll number — what New Yorkers say in a survey — and the market number — what people are willing to put real money on. Both matter. They rarely match.

Market read — July 2, 2026. Polymarket's "Mamdani out before 2027" contract is trading in the single digits (i.e., ~95%+ priced to finish the year in office). Kalshi's 2029 NYC mayoral market has the incumbent as the clear favorite with a long tail. The rent-freeze contract has firmed since the Rent Guidelines Board vote moved onto the calendar. Live prices in the widget above.

Marist / PIX11 (Apr 2026)

48% approve

Emerson College (Apr 2026)

43% approve

Right-track / wrong-track

Majority right-track (Marist)

Markets to watch

2029 reelection · rent freeze · NYPD commissioner

Last updated

July 2, 2026

What is Mamdani's approval rating right now?

Two reputable surveys landed within a week of the 100-day mark. The April 2026 Marist Institute for Public Opinion poll, conducted with PIX11, found Mayor Mamdani at 48% job approval among New York City residents. The April 2026 Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey put him at 43% approval among registered voters — a slightly tougher sample.

Both polls also asked the broader "right track / wrong track" question. Marist found a majority of New Yorkers saying the city is headed in the right direction — the first time that number has crossed 50% in several years. Emerson found a majority still saying the city is on the wrong track, even with positive approval of the mayor himself. Same city, two different reads — typical of a first-100-days window.

How the polls have moved since January

Mamdani's number has held steady from his inauguration through the spring. The Marist trend line shows almost no movement between his first month and his hundredth day — unusual for a New York mayor, where the typical pattern is a honeymoon spike followed by a slow grind back to the mid-40s.

Voters approve specifically of his handling of childcare and housing affordability, per Emerson. They split on the city budget. That mix — strong on his marquee issues, soft on the harder fiscal questions — is what's keeping the headline number stable.

What prediction markets are pricing

The poll number tells you how New Yorkers feel today. The market number tells you what traders think happens next. Three contracts are worth watching.

• —2029 NYC Mayoral Election. Polymarket's reelection contract is the cleanest forward read on Mamdani — a single number that bakes in approval, the budget vote, the primary calendar, and any 2028 surprise.
• —Rent freeze in first term. Kalshi and Polymarket have both listed contracts on whether the Rent Guidelines Board votes a zero-percent increase under Mamdani — the policy he ran on and the cleanest test of his housing platform.
• —NYPD commissioner retention. A first-term staffing question that moves the political risk number. Whether the current commissioner is still in the role at year-end is the contract to watch.

We covered the broader market landscape in the NYC mayor odds breakdown and the immediate post-election read in Mamdani is the mayor — what comes next. The live prices for any of these contracts are in the Market Pulse widget above when available.

Why the poll number and the market number can disagree

Polls measure sentiment in a moment. Markets measure expectation across a horizon. A 48% approval rating today can sit next to a 35% reelection price four years out if traders think the policy fight gets harder before it gets easier — or a 65% reelection price if they think the field clears. Neither number is wrong. They're answering different questions.

The other gap: poll samples include people who do not vote. Reelection markets price the people who do. New York's off-year mayoral primary turnout is structurally low, which is one reason market prices can drift independently of the headline approval number.

What to watch next

• —The FY2027 city budget vote at the end of June — the first hard test of the Mamdani-Council relationship.
• —The June Rent Guidelines Board vote, which sets the practical ceiling on the rent-freeze contract.
• —The next Marist and Quinnipiac surveys, expected mid-summer, for the first post-honeymoon read.

Editorial only. Polling figures cited verbatim from Marist Institute for Public Opinion and Emerson College Polling. Prediction-market contracts available to verified US residents via Kalshi and Polymarket. Use code NYPREDICTS on signup.