Fed Rate-Hike Markets: How to Read the Price Before the October Meeting

Key dates before the next two Fed decisions

Date	Event	Time (ET)	Why it matters
Wednesday, October 14	Consumer Price Index (September data)	8:30 a.m.	Last inflation report before the October decision
October 27–28	FOMC meeting	Decision on October 28	Settles October-meeting contracts
Friday, November 6	Jobs report (October data)	8:30 a.m.	First of two jobs reports before the December decision
Tuesday, November 10	Consumer Price Index (October data)	8:30 a.m.	Only inflation report between the two meetings
Friday, December 4	Jobs report (November data)	8:30 a.m.	Last jobs report before the December decision
December 8–9	FOMC meeting with new projections	Decision on December 9	Settles December-meeting contracts; new rate projections published
Thursday, December 10	Consumer Price Index (November data)	8:30 a.m.	Arrives the day after the December decision

Meeting dates come from the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar. Release dates come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules for the Consumer Price Index and the Employment Situation, which can change.

What does a Fed rate-decision contract actually ask?

Fed contracts come in two common shapes, and they are easy to mix up.

• The decision format asks what the committee does at one meeting. On Kalshi, the outcomes for a meeting are a cut of more than 25 basis points, a cut of 25 basis points, no change, a hike of 25 basis points and a hike of more than 25 basis points. Only one can happen, so only one resolves Yes.
• The level format asks where the rate ends up. On Kalshi, each contract asks whether the upper bound of the target range published on the Federal Reserve's website is greater than a stated level after the meeting. Several of these can resolve Yes at once, because a rate above 3.75% is also above 3.50%.

The two formats can describe the same decision with very different prices. A low price on "hike of 25 basis points" and a high price on "above 3.75%" do not contradict each other when the range is already 3.75% to 4.00%: holding rates steady makes the first one No and the second one Yes.

How would the September hike have settled each format?

September is a clean worked example because the facts are fixed. The committee raised the target range by a quarter point, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.

• Decision format: a quarter point is 25 basis points, so the outcome that matches is "hike of 25 basis points." The cut and no-change outcomes do not match, and neither does "hike of more than 25 basis points."
• Level format: the new upper bound is 4.00%. Under the "greater than" wording, a 3.75% threshold is met and a 4.00% threshold is not, because 4.00% is not greater than 4.00%.

Two details did not matter to either format. The 12–0 vote is news, but a contract about the size of the move does not ask how many members agreed. The statement's language about growth and inflation shapes expectations for the next meeting, but it is not part of the settlement rule either.

That is the habit to carry into October: keep the announced decision, the settlement rule and your own reading of why the Fed acted as three separate things.

What does the price tell you, and what does it leave out?

A price is the market-implied probability of the outcome written in the rule, at that moment; our prediction markets vs. sports betting guide explains the mechanics. A favored outcome can still fail to happen, and a price moving is traders updating, not the Fed speaking.

A single-meeting price also says nothing direct about the meeting after it. A December contract depends on the October decision plus the data released in between, so compare prices only for the same meeting, in the same format, at the same time.

How do the Fed's own projections fit in?

The Summary of Economic Projections is the committee's survey of its participants, published four times a year. In September the median participant put the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026. The midpoint of the current 3.75%–4.00% range is just under 3.9%, so that median sits roughly one quarter-point step higher, with two meetings left in the year.

That is arithmetic, not a schedule. Each projection is one participant's view of appropriate policy under that person's own outlook, and the central tendency of 4.1% to 4.4% shows the views were not identical. The projections do not say at which meeting a move would come, and they are refreshed in December. A contract price and a projection answer different questions: one is what traders will pay today for a defined outcome, the other is what officials expected on the day they wrote it down.

What should you check before trading a Fed contract?

1. The meeting. Confirm the contract is for the October 27–28 meeting and not December or a later one.
2. The outcome wording. Is it the size of the move or the level of the rate? Is the boundary "greater than" or "at least"?
3. The source. Kalshi's Fed contracts name the Federal Reserve as the settlement source, so the official statement decides the outcome, not a headline.
4. The clock. Check when trading closes, and which data releases in the table above land before then.

Can New Yorkers trade Fed rate contracts?

For economic contracts, check Kalshi first, then Polymarket US; listings differ between them. Both carry the same New York status: Available — dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). Our New York legality guide, Kalshi in New York page and Polymarket in New York page follow the dispute.

Kalshi's and Polymarket US's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.

Frequently asked questions

When are the remaining Fed meetings in 2026?

The FOMC's remaining 2026 meetings are October 27–28 and December 8–9. The December meeting also brings a new Summary of Economic Projections.

What is a 25-basis-point rate hike?

A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points is a quarter point. The Fed's September 2026 increase moved the target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.

How does a Fed rate-decision contract settle?

On the written rule. A decision-format contract settles on the size of the change announced at the named meeting. A level-format contract settles on whether the upper bound of the target range is above a stated level after that meeting. The Federal Reserve's own publication is the source.

Does a high price mean the Fed will definitely hike?

No. A price is a market-implied probability at one moment. A favored outcome can still fail to happen, and prices move as new inflation and jobs data arrive.

Does the FOMC vote count affect settlement?

Not for a contract about the size of the move or the level of the rate. A 12–0 vote and a split vote settle those contracts the same way if the announced range is the same.

Are the Fed's rate projections a promise?

No. The Summary of Economic Projections collects each participant's own view of appropriate policy. It is not a committee commitment or a schedule, and it is updated four times a year.

Can New Yorkers trade Fed rate contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US?

Both are open to New Yorkers while a legal dispute is pending. The current status line is in the availability section above, and our Kalshi in New York page tracks any change.