NYC Marathon Prediction Markets: New York Guide
A New York guide to marathon winner contracts: how they settle, what happens when a runner withdraws, the five-borough course and the storylines behind each field.
The short answer
New York City Marathon contracts appear when a platform lists them, and they usually ask one question: who wins the men's open division or the women's open division. Each runner has a separate contract, and it settles on the official race result, not on a finish time. In New York, the platforms we cover are available while a legal dispute is pending. This year's listings and field are in the box below.
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi lists New York City Marathon winner markets for the men's and women's open divisions. New users: Trade $25 and Get $25 with code NYPREDICTS.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Where things stand
- Race day: the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon is on Sunday, November 1. It marks the 50th anniversary of the five-borough course, first run in 1976.
- Listings: Kalshi lists two winner markets for this race, one for the men's open division and one for the women's open division, with a separate contract for each named runner.
- Defending champions: Hellen Obiri (women's open), Benson Kipruto (men's open) and Marcel Hug (men's wheelchair) are all in the professional field.
- Women's field: Sifan Hassan, Sheila Chepkirui and Weini Kelati, who is running her first marathon.
- Men's field: Abdi Nageeye, Geoffrey Kamworor, Conner Mantz and Zouhair Talbi.
- Start times: New York Road Runners has not yet posted the professional start timeline. Wave 1 is listed for 9:10 a.m. ET, and the national broadcast begins at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Last checked: October 7, 2026
Key dates: race week and race day
| Date | Event | Time (ET) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, October 29 | Marathon Expo opens (Javits Center) | 10:00 a.m.–8:00 p.m. | First of three bib-pickup days; race week begins |
| Friday, October 30 | Marathon Expo | 10:00 a.m.–8:00 p.m. | Second bib-pickup day |
| Saturday, October 31 | Final Expo day | 9:00 a.m.–5:00 p.m. | Last day before the race to check the confirmed field |
| Sunday, November 1 | Race broadcast (ESPN2 nationally, WABC-TV in New York) | 8:00 a.m.–11:30 a.m. | Covers the professional races that decide winner contracts |
| Sunday, November 1 | Wave 1 start | 9:10 a.m. | First of five waves for the main field |
| Sunday, November 1 | Official finisher cutoff | 10:00 p.m. | Finishers after this time are not recorded in the official results |
Expo hours come from the NYRR Expo page, and the wave time from the NYRR start page, which notes that start times are subject to change.
Which NYC Marathon prediction markets can appear?
The standard marathon contract is a winner market. It names a division, lists the entered runners and asks which one wins. Because only one runner can win a division, the contracts in a group are mutually exclusive: one resolves Yes and the others resolve No.
The division is the detail to read first. The marathon crowns separate champions in the men's open, women's open, men's wheelchair and women's wheelchair divisions. A men's open contract has nothing to do with the wheelchair result, and it does not ask who runs the fastest time of the day.
A contract's price shows what traders collectively imply about that runner's chance, not a guarantee; our prediction markets vs. sports betting guide explains the format.
How do marathon winner contracts settle?
Settlement follows the written rule, not the broadcast. On Kalshi, each named-runner contract resolves Yes if that runner wins the stated open division of the 2026 TCS New York City Marathon. The market names New York Road Runners results among its settlement sources, alongside the Associated Press, ESPN, The Wall Street Journal and Fox Sports.
Kalshi's contract terms also cover the awkward cases:
- Withdrawal: if a listed runner withdraws, that runner's contract resolves No. It is not refunded.
- Disqualification: a runner disqualified before the contract expires resolves No, and the contract follows whoever is reported as the official winner.
- Later changes: a result revised after the contract has expired does not change the settlement.
Other platforms write their own rules, so read the rule on the contract you are actually trading.
Which runners shape the main storylines?
Can Hellen Obiri defend the women's title?
Obiri won the 2025 race in 2:19:51, breaking a course record that had stood since 2003, for her second New York title. She is up against 2024 champion Sheila Chepkirui, who finished third in 2025, and three-time Olympic champion Sifan Hassan, who was sixth in her New York debut. That puts several proven marathon winners in one market instead of a single headline name.
What makes Weini Kelati's debut hard to price?
Kelati holds the American half marathon record and is running her first marathon. A debut leaves traders with strong form at shorter distances but no finished marathon to judge how a runner handles the last six miles. Any price on a debutant is an estimate built on less evidence than a price on a past champion.
Can the men's race be that close again?
Benson Kipruto won the 2025 men's open division by three hundredths of a second over Alexander Mutiso, the smallest winning margin in the race's history. He returns against two former champions, Geoffrey Kamworor (2017 and 2019) and Abdi Nageeye (2024), plus American record holder Conner Mantz and Zouhair Talbi. With that depth, a contract on the defending champion is a trade on one runner in a crowded field, not on a clear favorite.
How does the five-borough course matter?
The course covers 26.2 miles and touches every borough. Runners start at Fort Wadsworth on Staten Island, cross the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge into Brooklyn, take the Pulaski Bridge into Queens at the halfway mark, cross the Queensboro Bridge into Manhattan, reach the Bronx over the Willis Avenue Bridge and return over the Madison Avenue Bridge to finish in Central Park.
For 2026 the route has a small change in the Bronx, the first adjustment to the course in 15 years, according to the NYRR course page. Course knowledge can inform a view, but it does not change settlement: the confirmed start list, a late withdrawal and race-day weather are more direct inputs than a general belief that a runner is "good in New York."
Where can New Yorkers find marathon markets?
Listings differ by platform and can appear late, so check ProphetX, Kalshi, Polymarket US and OG for listings before race week. Their New York status is the same: Available — dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026). Our New York legality guide, Kalshi in New York page and Polymarket in New York page follow the dispute.
ProphetX's minimum age is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); Kalshi's, Polymarket US's and OG's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.
Sources
- New York Road Runners, New York Road Runners Announces 2026 TCS New York City Marathon Professional Athlete Field, checked October 7, 2026.
- New York Road Runners, New York Road Runners Kicks Off Year-Long Celebration Honoring 50th Anniversary of the Five-Borough New York City Marathon Course, checked October 7, 2026.
- New York Road Runners, TCS New York City Marathon Expo Presented by New Balance, checked October 7, 2026.
- New York Road Runners, The Start, checked October 7, 2026.
- New York Road Runners, Watch the Race, checked October 7, 2026.
- New York Road Runners, The Course, checked October 7, 2026.
- Kalshi market page, New York City Marathon Men's and Women's Open Division Winner, checked October 7, 2026.
- Kalshi contract terms for marathon winner markets, checked October 7, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
When is the 2026 NYC Marathon?
The 2026 TCS New York City Marathon is on Sunday, November 1, 2026. The race is held on the first Sunday of November each year.
What kind of NYC Marathon prediction markets exist?
Winner markets. A market names a division, such as the men's open or women's open, and lists a separate contract for each runner. Only the contract tied to the official winner resolves Yes.
Who won the NYC Marathon in 2025?
Hellen Obiri won the women's open division in a course-record 2:19:51, Benson Kipruto won the men's open division by three hundredths of a second, and Marcel Hug won the men's wheelchair division for his seventh New York title.
What happens to a contract if a listed runner withdraws?
Under Kalshi's contract terms, a runner who withdraws resolves No, so the contract is not refunded. Other platforms set their own rules, so read the rule on the contract you hold.
How long is the NYC Marathon course?
It is 26.2 miles. It starts on Staten Island, runs through Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan and the Bronx, and finishes in Central Park.
When was the first five-borough NYC Marathon?
In 1976. The race began in 1970 as laps of Central Park and moved onto the streets of all five boroughs in 1976 to mark the U.S. Bicentennial.
Can New Yorkers trade NYC Marathon prediction markets?
The platforms we cover are open to New Yorkers while a legal dispute is pending. The current status line is in the availability section above, and our Kalshi in New York page tracks any change.
18+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
